Will the ruble collapse in 2020: expert forecasts
What will happen to the ruble in 2020 in Russia? This question excites many. For many years now, there has been no tendency to strengthen the national currency in the country. Her course is not encouraging. Will the national currency fall further or grow? What are the opinions and forecasts of experts?
Reasons affecting the position of the national currency
The last sharp jump in quotes was observed in September 2018. On the 10th, one dollar was 70.5 rubles, and the euro was 81.5. These indicators exceeded the statistics of 2016. Why is this happening and what affects the process? There are several main factors:
- The economic situation in which the state is currently located.
- The geopolitical situation in which the country finds itself.
- Potential problems.
- Devaluation and its scale.
The situation in Russia cannot be called stable. Inflation indicators continue to grow, which negatively affects the level of well-being of citizens. Sanctions imposed by other states adversely affect geopolitics. All these factors cause a deterioration in the position of one's own currency against foreign ones. The stabilizing factor is called low inflation. Yulia Tseplyaeva, director of the Center for Macroeconomic Research, believes that in the future we will see strengthening and stabilization.
The forecasts of the chief analyst at Alfa Bank Natalya Orlova also featured an inflation factor. Sharp fluctuations in the exchange rate are not threatened, due to the low percentage of inflation. She expects significant changes in indicators by 2021, when, in her opinion, the dollar will cost 65 rubles.
Forecasts of the Ministry of Economic Development
The Ministry of Economic Development predicts two scenarios for development of the scenario, which are based on the cost of an oil barrel. The first option is called basic. In accordance with it, one dollar will cost 72 rubles. 70 kopecks (annual average). By the end of the year, the rate will reach 73 rubles. 80 kopecks The second scenario is the target scenario, in which growth will be less intense. According to him, one dollar will be equal to 71 rubles. 80 kopecks This indicator will increase by the end of the year to 72 rubles. 40 kopecks
Forecast of the HSE Development Center
Center experts predict the stability of the Russian currency. A gradually decreasing inflation will contribute to its strengthening, and the dollar will cost 62 rubles. 40 kopecks. According to Valery Viktorovich Mironov, the deputy director of the Center, the annual monetary depreciation will be 4%. He believes that Russian money has already adapted sufficiently to negative factors, and even new sanctions will not be able to have a powerful negative impact on the situation. At the moment, the high cost of "black gold" is due to three factors:
- complicated relations between Iran and the United States;
- problems associated with the extraction of "black gold" in Venezuela;
- arrangements between major oil exporting countries to limit production.
Mironov's forecasted rate is 59.9 dollars per barrel, the price per dollar is 63.2 rubles.
Forecast INP RAS
The employees of the Institute for Agricultural Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences were engaged in the analysis and design of the future position of the Russian national currency. Their macro forecast covers the years 2018-20. Scientists suggest that the average oil price in this period will be $ 68 per barrel. The high level of value is due to the extension of the OPEC transaction and the freezing of production. In this regard, the dollar exchange rate will increase by 2020 by 4.7% and will approach the level of 64 rubles.
With regard to the euro, positive dynamics and relative stabilization of the situation are forecasted, which will result in the achievement of the following rate: 70 rubles. 40 kopecks for one euro.
According to the forecast, the Russian economy will be less dependent on commodity prices. This is due to the fact that the import substitution policy "woke up" several industries at once - mechanical engineering, chemical and food production. Therefore, the high price of oil will not become any powerful supporting factor in relation to the national currency.
According to the deputy director of the Institute, A. Shirov, as a result of the strengthening of the Russian currency, the budget rule will be constrained, which implies the redirection of income from the sale of raw materials of more than $ 40 per barrel to the National Welfare Fund. This measure was to create an accumulative reserve that would be used in a critical situation for the country. Alexander Shirov is sure that no “stress” threatens the economy. Moreover, we have a chance to strengthen, due to the fact that the dollar is losing its position in relation to the euro.
Does devaluation threaten Russia
The forecasts of the Ministry of Economic Development are optimistic. In accordance with them, the rate will decline. However, many predictions involuntarily suggest that in the future Russia will face devaluation. Is it so? If you go into details, then there are two types of it: open and hidden. In the first case, the Government openly declares devaluation. A concomitant procedure is often denomination. Money is losing value, it is being replaced with new banknotes with a much lower content of zeros.
Hidden denomination is the result of a financial crisis or the intervention of other states that impose certain restrictions by imposing sanctions. In this case, the government will not follow actions involving the preservation of the national currency. Concealed purchases of foreign currency are carried out in order to reduce the quotation of their own. This process took place in 1998, 2008.
Experts are similar in opinion: quotes will be reduced gently and gradually. According to Dmitry Evstafiev, the process will be closely monitored by the Government. The reference point will be predictable values, at which exporters will feel the support, and the most significant industries will receive an incentive for further development.