What awaits Russia in 2020 - economic forecast
The second decade of the new millennium will go down in history as a time of change. Only this change for the better or for the collapse of the Russian Federation will depend on the steps of the government and the mood of the population.
The discontent of the population increased in the eventful 2018, the government introduced reforms that citizens dubbed genocide. More than half of the country's population against the current ruling apparatus. The bills, voiced in 2018, have been approved, but still cause heated debate, right up to filing lawsuits by citizens in the Constitutional Court of the Russian Federation against the government.
In the light of internal events, external conflicts and tensions, Russia is on the brink. And without tactically correct actions of the authorities, anything can happen.
What economic bills are being prepared in 2019 and what awaits Russians in 2020?
Economic forecast of the Russian Federation 2020
The current economic situation clearly demonstrates a recession. But citizens simply do not yet feel the growth of the Russian economy. The government set a goal - the development of a social project, population growth.
The accurate economic forecast of the Russian Federation for 2020 today is difficult to do for objective reasons:
- Russia does not yet have the necessary resources for autonomous development and existence;
- Unhealthy US competition for the international market;
- War in other countries;
- The active arming of the army, the development and production of weapons, the timing of the rapid renewal of weapons are not known;
- Dependence of the Russian budget on the oil trade.
Optimistic Prime Minister D. Medvedev. He pledged to increase the economy in 2019-2020 to a global average.
The reality of fulfilling promises can only be judged by the results of 2020, people have become less trusting of their government. Resources are needed to lift. Dmitry Medvedev said that there is a calculated action plan, an understanding of the leverage to bring Russia to the declared level.
The actions taken by Medvedev to bring the Russian Federation out of the crisis differ from Putin's actions to bring Russia out of the 2008 crisis.
Russia seeks to become a country independent of oil, but so far the forecasts of the Russian economy determine oil revenues.
For 2020, the forecast for oil prices is favorable. Experts at a major US banking financial holding Morgan Stanley forecast $ 60 per barrel.
The average analysis of the minimum oil price in 2020 is based around $ 50. With this development, Russia is not threatened by global economic cataclysms. When the cost of a barrel in the range of up to $ 50, China and India increase export volumes. In the USA, Japan and Europe, such activity is reflected in a slowdown in production due to the difference in pricing of the final product.
Only at a price of up to $ 35 per barrel, Russia will survive a deep crisis: a budget deficit, reduced social benefits, bankruptcy of enterprises, unemployment, and chaotic conflicts of the population against the government.
Ruble exchange rate in 2020
At present, the collapse of the ruble, as in the late 90s, will not be. The ruble retains its solvency according to inflation, according to citizens' perceptions, by 20%.
The ruble depends not only on the rates of the Central Bank and the foreign exchange market, the Russian government owns a number of state-owned companies that export goods to the international market in foreign currency.
Power can influence the ruble by manually maintaining the assets of state-owned enterprises in the foreign exchange market.
The government plans to strengthen the ruble by restraining the rise in prices of network trading companies and introducing preferential interest on loans.
The growth of the dollar in the period 2020 will stop and will be about 68 rubles per dollar. Analysis of the foreign exchange market and a comparison of economic factors from Sberbank predicts 70 rubles per dollar at the beginning of 2020, followed by growth.
Expert opinion on the Russian economy in 2020
The Ministry of Economic Development is developing its plan to lead the country out of the crisis. The Ministry of Economic Development represented by Maxim Oreshkin predicts 2020 as the year the other life began in Russia:
- Since 2020, hopes have been placed on an annual GDP growth of at least 3%;
- Due to sanctions in the Russian Federation, the development of production of leading sectors of the economy is being activated;
- International trade in exports will increase;
- Due to the upcoming bills, upon entry into force, the birth rate will increase.
An interesting forecast for 2020 was expressed by MGIMO professor Vladimir Pantin, who calculated the crisis of 2008 in 2004.
He believes that Russia can go in two opposite directions - collapse or recovery.
- In 2020, a powerful crisis may occur right up to the split of Russia and the separation of regions if the government makes a mistake in calculating the actions taken in the foreign policy arena.
- Competent actions of the authorities will bring the country to a qualitatively new economic level. By competent actions, the professor means refusing military operations with Ukraine, which will be very beneficial for the United States.
Upcoming bills for Russia's exit from the crisis
On February 20, 2019, Putin in St. Petersburg covered topics of the Federal Assembly regarding social problems in the Russian Federation.
The crisis in the Russian Federation is already underway. As promised, pension reform, an increase in the VAT rate, and a double increase in utility tariffs took effect. But new bills voiced by the media are for the people, and upon entry into force, will be able to prevent the acceleration of the crisis. Over the past 5 years, Russian President Vladimir Putin has focused on foreign policy issues. In 2019, he had already given a number of instructions to officials to engage in public support.
According to the guidelines, the expected economic development for 2020 will be favorable for the population:
- Mortgage repayment for 450 000 rubles at birth in the family of a third child or more. Putin instructed to approve the bill on January 1, 2019.
- For families with children, enter a preferential interest on a mortgage loan before the end of the term.
- Increase children’s on the first and second child to low-income families, where the total income is not more than two living wages. The president proposed raising up to two living wages per family member from January 1, 2020.
- The amount for caring for a child with disabilities will rise from 5,500 p. up to 10,000 p. per month.
- To support whiter than 17 billion rubles for the renovation of cultural houses in cities and villages.
- Reduce mortgage interest to 8 and below.
- Encourage the development of cancer vaccines; until 2025, finance developments worth more than a trillion rubles.
- Protect citizens from extortion by microfinance organizations.
- Put things in order, organize garbage disposal, and prevent the occurrence of natural dumps.
The bill, which repays part of the mortgage in the amount of 450 thousand rubles, will help to increase the birth rate and provides for the amount of payments from the budget for this serious area:
|2019 year||26.2 billion rubles|
|2020 year||28.6 billion rubles|
|2021 year||30.1 billion rubles|
2020 inflation growth analytics
The increase in VAT, pension reform, and staff reductions are in parallel with inflation. Prices for gasoline, products, and services have risen.
The government after the arms race with the United States took up the social issue. The measures envisaged will qualitatively raise the standard of living of the population.
According to the forecast, annual inflation in 2020 will be 4.3%.
Developers reduced construction volumes by 10-15% due to the crisis that affected the construction market. This can lead to a jump in property prices due to limited supply.
Putin proposed to stimulate developers for construction in settlements of the Russian Federation, freeing them from part of taxes and VAT. This gives reason to think that real estate price growth will stop when the proposal enters into legal force.
The chief economist of Russia Alexei Kudrin explained: "The Russian economy is still" extremely "dependent on oil prices, this problem has not gone away. Therefore, until the oil price is low, we will have low growth rates. We have not shifted from the old model of our work economy. A new one hasn’t appeared yet. "
The problems of demography, the ruling apparatus, and the lack of a sufficient number of production capacities across the country isolate Russia from economic growth. If the proposed bills c. Putin’s optimistic forecast of the withdrawal of the Russian Federation to the world’s middle powers by D. Medvedev is realized, albeit with slight deviations, that the economic recovery of the Russian Federation is possible, now there is money in the budget for social support with all the infrastructure.